The Logistics of Dependence: Securing Kazakh Oil Flows to the European Union

Abstract

This study analyses Kazakhstan’s strategic role in the European Union’s (EU) energy security in the context of recent international tensions and disruptions to global oil supply chains. As the EU’s third-largest crude oil supplier, Kazakhstan occupies a critical position but remains heavily dependent on Russian transit infrastructure, exposing its exports to significant risks. The research employs a qualitative methodology, combining semi-structured interviews with 10 industry and policy experts and an extensive literature review, to assess the economic, political, and infrastructural dimensions of Kazakhstan’s crude oil export system. The findings highlight persistent reliance on the Caspian Pipeline Consortium and the Transneft network, the limited capacity, and higher costs of alternative routes such as the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route, and the implications of recent conflicts for maritime security. While alternative routes are unlikely to replace Russian transit in the period until 2030, their strategic value is increasing as the EU seeks to diversify supplies under the REPowerEU agenda. This study contributes to understanding Kazakhstan’s export constraints and opportunities, offering insights into the interplay between energy policy, infrastructure, and geopolitics in shaping the EU’s future energy resilience.